US on the brink of financial revaluation

by BT · 21.06.2025

⇒ Warning. Any strategy does not guarantee profit on every trade. Strategy is an algorithm of actions. Any algorithm is a systematic work. Success in trading is to adhere to systematic work.

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I. Introduction: A New World Without the “American Anchor”

Currency is not just money. It’s trust, stability, belief in tomorrow. For decades, the dollar was that very anchor — the foundation of the planet’s financial reality. Its strength was unquestionable. It was — and remained — America’s primary export. Until now.

Today, the dollar has stopped being a symbol of stability. It has become litmus paper for panic. Panic from markets in response to chaotic politics. Panic from allies — fearing betrayal in the form of “tariff revenge.” Panic from investors — realizing U.S. debt no longer guarantees safety but has become a black hole. Panic from Washington itself — facing the fact that the lever keeping global order in place may no longer exist.

📉 The fall of the dollar, the inflated stock market, and the dead silence of the White House — these aren’t isolated phenomena. They are three sides of the same trap: monetary, political, and psychological.

America bet on devaluation. Not just of its currency — of its mentality. Everything has been devalued: institutions, international commitments, the principles of free trade. When the former global leader acts like a market speculator, investors begin to behave like fugitives. They flee the dollar. They flee to gold. To the yuan. To the Swiss franc. To any haven where reason rules, not a campaign tweet.

🔺 And here lies the critical breaking point: The U.S. doesn’t just need elections. It needs war.

A war that will once again turn the dollar into a safe haven. A war that, through fear, will elevate the greenback in the world’s eyes. A war that will push everyone back into buying U.S. debt — because staying in their own currency will seem even scarier.

This is a cold, calculated geopolitical model of “financial resuscitation through chaos.”

But what if there is no war? What if the world resists?

Then, for the first time, America will face a reality where the dollar is not an anchor, but just another currency. Strong — but not unique. And this won’t just be a financial loss — it will be a loss of status.

Welcome to the new world. A world where the U.S. no longer dictates the price of fear — it just pays the bill.

II. The American Trap: Geopolitics as a Financial Pump

The financial hegemony of the U.S. was never a coincidence. It was a technology. The American economy isn’t just Wall Street and Silicon Valley — it’s a network of pipelines through which the world’s capital flows. And for decades, it was powered by one simple rule: “In every geopolitical storm — the dollar is your safe harbor.”

America deliberately built a model of controlled chaos. It created and froze conflicts. It didn’t destroy — it managed.

🇮🇶 The Middle East,
🇽🇰 The Balkans,
🇦🇫 Afghanistan,
🇺🇦 Ukraine,
🇹🇼 Taiwan — all pressure points meant to keep global capital anxious and redirect it back into U.S. Treasuries.

🔧 It was a global pump:
chaos → fear → flight to the dollar → financing of American debt.

The system worked perfectly. Until a virus broke it.

After COVID-19, the world changed. Borders are more fragile. Trust is lower. Logistics are brittle. And most importantly: fear no longer functions the way it used to.

📉 China accelerated de-dollarization and began settling in yuan with partners.
🪙 Central banks are buying gold at record rates.
🇮🇳 India, 🇧🇷 Brazil, 🇿🇦 South Africa — are building alternative payment systems.

📌 The new world doesn’t believe in old fears.

America is now trapped by its own design. Its financial system is a Ponzi model — one that requires a constant influx of new “dollar-yielding” zones for stability. But those no longer exist.

There are no new markets left to subjugate.
No new countries to pull into the dollar’s orbit.
No new planet to scale the scheme to.

🪐 (Perhaps that’s why they dream of Mars.)

Now all that remains is the bubble.
A bubble in the stock market. In insurance. In debt. In promises.
One holds up the other. And if something “pops” — say, the corporate bond market cracks or a major insurer collapses — the whole structure plummets into the abyss.

III. Pyramid within a Pyramid: A System of Bubbles Inside Bubbles

The American financial system today is not just a bubble.
It’s a matryoshka of bubbles, nested one inside the other:

📈 the stock market
🔄 depends on venture capital,
💳 which is based on the debt market,
🛡️ which is insured by derivatives and reinsurance systems.

Each layer is a temporary crutch for the next. And the whole thing only holds together as long as no level begins to “leak.”

But the smoke is already in the air.

🔄 When a bubble insures a bubble
Here’s what we have:

The stock market grows — not from economic expansion, but from expectations.

Venture expectations are funded by debt.

Debt is packaged as “safe assets” and… insured.

And where do insurance reserves go? Back into the stock market.

📌 This creates a closed loop: a bubble insuring itself.

💥 The “one pop” effect (the first crack)
What if somewhere in the system, obligations can’t be met?

For example, an insurance company fails to cover bond risks.

This hits the funds holding those bonds.

They start selling assets en masse to cover the losses.

Panic erupts in equities, then spreads to ETFs, then credit, then liquidity vanishes.

📉 A domino effect — and suddenly a “minor issue” in one segment brings down the entire floor.

📉 Broken correlations: why the dollar no longer saves
It used to be simple:
⏫ Treasury yields go up → ⬆️ the dollar strengthens.

Not anymore.

Rising yields = a sign of risk, not strength.

Investors don’t flee to the dollar — they flee from it.

USD–bond correlations are now inverted.

For the first time in decades, investors are not buying dollars even as rates rise.

🧨 This isn’t a sign of strength — it’s a loss of faith in the model.

The system no longer reacts by classical economic laws.
America is losing its privilege of being the exception.

IV. The Silent Exodus: Gold, Asian Currencies, and the Dollar’s Decline

🔔 When a system loses trust, the exodus doesn’t begin with shouting — it begins in silence.
That’s exactly what’s happening with the dollar.
Global players are no longer whispering — they’re silent and selling. Or… buying gold.

🏦 Central banks are buying gold — not out of love, but out of fear
Over the past two years, the world’s largest central banks — from China and India to Turkey and Saudi Arabia — have increased their gold reserves by hundreds of tons.

The reason is simple: if the dollar no longer guarantees safety, gold becomes the last quiet guarantor.

This isn’t a trend.
It’s a manifesto of distrust in the dollar.
It’s fear of the collapse of the American pyramid, and a desire to survive.

Central banks don’t speculate.
If they’re buying — they’re preparing.

🧧 The Rise of the East: Yuan and the Commodity Bloc
China isn’t just buying gold.
It’s building an alternative:

signing commodity deals in yuan,
lending in yuan,
binding Africa and the Middle East to the yuan through investment schemes.

The yuan, rupee, dirham, Singapore dollar — a new layer of a multipolar financial world, where the dollar is just one of many “languages,” no longer the “Latin.”

🛢️ Commodity currencies — like the Canadian dollar, Norwegian krone, Australian dollar — are regaining investor trust: they have resources, not debt.

🌐 Diversification = the first stage of departure
The world isn’t yet ready to throw the dollar off its pedestal.
But it’s ready not to put everything into it:

Central banks are cutting their share of dollar reserves.
Investment funds are rotating into Southeast Asian ETFs.
Blockchain trade platforms are moving away from USD.

📌 This isn’t collapse. But it’s an exodus.
Silent. Strategic. No drama, no declarations.

The dollar isn’t losing its price — it’s losing its role.
And that’s a process no decision from the White House can stop.

V. Trump, Tariffs, and Tax Retaliation — Why Investors Are Fleeing

📉 Strong dollar in words. Economic isolation in reality.
Investors don’t respond to press releases — they respond to risk.
And under Trump, risk isn’t hypothetical — it’s systemic.
Especially for those who once eagerly bought American debt.

🧱 Tariffs as financial quarantine
Trump’s tariff policy has long outgrown the role of a trade instrument.
It’s now geopolitical weaponry, and at the same time — an economic barrier that even allies struggle to cross.

Rising tariffs → rising costs → falling profitability → declining asset appeal.

The more tariffs — the less trust in the predictability of the system.

🇪🇺🇨🇳 Europe and Asia read this as a signal:
“Tomorrow, you could be sanctioned just for being successful.”

💣 Section 899 — a tax mine under global capital
The so-called “revenge tax” (Section 899 of the new tax code) targets non-residents investing in the U.S.
Rates are increased, foreign capital is punished — simply for not coming from the “right” jurisdiction.

📌 Investors don’t see this as economic protection — they see it as hostile redistribution.
And that scares more than volatility.

The result?

Capital flight from U.S. bonds
Plunging demand for long-term Treasuries
Growing hedges against the dollar

🔊 The gap between rhetoric and action
The White House says: “A strong dollar is in our interest.”

But the administration’s actions:

do not resist devaluation
stay silent during sell-offs
show sympathy for a “weaker dollar to boost exports”

📉 Investors notice this.
And worst of all — they no longer believe. Not in the words, nor the rates, nor the Treasury’s reassurances.

🧨 External debt under threat
The American debt system is the greatest trust game in market history.

But:

A 6% of GDP deficit
Loss of AAA rating
New restrictions on global investors

⛔ All of this destroys what once propped up the dollar: belief in its inviolability.

📌 And when debt becomes a risk — not a privilege…
The market is no longer a safe haven. It becomes a minefield.

VI. The “Big Bet” on Chaos: Can War Be America’s Only Escape?

🔥 When there are no more markets, no more allies, no more trust — only fear remains.

The American financial engine can no longer run on confidence.
It runs on panic.
And if that panic can’t arise naturally — it will be engineered.

⚔️ Geopolitical panic: the last bet on the dollar
Historically, the dollar has always strengthened during global crises:

The Gulf War
9/11
The 2008 Financial Crisis
COVID-19

💵 Why? Because in moments of chaos, the dollar was an anchor — toxic, maybe, but still an anchor.

📉 Now, with trust eroded, chaos becomes not a threat — but a tool.
America needs conflict to:

force capital back into Treasuries
restore its “safe haven” status
distract the world with an external threat

🕹 Conflict for the sake of credibility
This isn’t conspiracy — it’s cold geo-strategic calculus.
When no one’s buying your debt — you trigger Plan B:

Destabilize the Middle East
Escalate tension in the South China Sea
Shift from diplomacy → ultimatums → military threats

All of this creates the illusion that the dollar is indispensable.
A silent message: “There is chaos. Those with dollars will survive.”

🕊 If there is no war: what then?
What if chaos doesn’t come?
If conflict doesn’t escalate, and the world refuses to panic into the dollar?

Then comes the three-phase withdrawal:

📦 Dedollarization of global settlements (already underway)
📉 Reduction of dollar reserves in central banks
💱 Growth of direct currency pairs that bypass the dollar

🔄 A structural shift begins, where:

The dollar becomes just one currency among many
U.S. external debt becomes a toxic asset
Markets search for new safe havens — from gold to digital assets

🧨 Conclusion: The Dollar’s Era Won’t End in Collapse — But in Obsolescence

There will be no fireworks. No bankruptcy.
Just a loss of status.

And that’s the ultimate tragedy for an empire:
Not to be conquered — but to become irrelevant.

VII. Scenario Forecast for the Market: Currencies, Gold, Bonds

When the old financial order begins to crumble, the markets are the first to feel the tremors in the foundation.
And if all roads once led to the dollar, now they diverge in multiple directions — toward gold, toward the euro, toward safety in new forms.

💶 EUR/USD — Europe as an Island of Stability
Amid America’s fiscal breakdown and political chaos, the euro isn’t gaining strength, it’s regaining trust.
Not because the eurozone is healthy — but because the U.S. looks even sicker.

📈 Short-term outlook:

EUR/USD strengthening to the 1.13–1.18 range, especially against the backdrop of falling real U.S. rates and fading dollar appeal.

📉 Risks:

Europe relies on exports, and a strong euro could damage competitiveness.
Political shifts in the EU (France, Germany) may add volatility.

Strategic outlook: The euro becomes a beneficiary of the “post-dollar” era.

🪙 Gold — Not Just an Asset, but a Status Symbol
Gold has left its role as a “quiet defender” and has become a political symbol:

Central banks are buying it up.
It is decoupling from real interest rates and inflation.
It is beginning to compete with the dollar in reserve portfolios.

📌 Key trend: Gold is now the anchor of the alternative financial world.

📈 Forecast:

Without major war: $2,450–$2,700
With geopolitical explosion: $3,000 and beyond

This is not speculative growth. It’s the restoration of gold’s power lost in the era of dollar monopoly.

📉 US Treasuries — No Longer Immune
U.S. government bonds no longer provide a sense of safety.
They are the mirror of fiscal despair.

🔻 What we observe:

Foreign investors are reducing their holdings.
Yields are rising not from strength, but from a lack of buyers.
The “rates up → dollar up” correlation no longer holds.

🔮 Forecast:

The market will begin demanding a risk premium on U.S. debt — something never seen in modern American history.
By 2026, 10-year yields may exceed 5.2–5.5% and stay elevated, even in recession.

📊 Summary:

Asset	Trend	Reason
EUR/USD	Strengthening	Loss of trust in the dollar
Gold	Rising	Global shift in reserve policy
US Treasuries	Weakening	Fiscal risk and loss of safe haven status

VIII. Conclusion: A World Without a Single Currency — Risks and Opportunities

The world is entering an era where the dollar is no longer god — but has no clear replacement.
That’s a vacuum, and in finance, vacuums are dangerous.

🧭 Is a New Multipolar Financial System Emerging?
Yes. It’s already on the way.
Instead of one global center — we’ll see multiple semi-centric zones of influence:

The yuan as an axis for Asia and BRICS.
The euro as Europe’s locomotive.
Gold and commodity currencies as the base of security.
Crypto and digital CBDCs as new forms of trust.

The old model — all roads lead to Washington — is fading.
Now, each region has its own road. That’s both an opportunity and a challenge.

🥇 Who Wins in the Age of Dollar Weakness?

China: It already has the economy, digital yuan, strategic gold, and the Belt & Road.
Gold: Beyond politics, beyond debt, beyond inflation. Once again, a currency.
Technology: DeFi, Web3, blockchain networks — the tools of new financial sovereignty.

Winners will be countries and companies that can swiftly shift from centralized dollar dependency to flexible financial autonomy.

💡 How Can Investors Avoid the Bubble Trap?

📌 1. Don’t believe in “eternal” assets
What used to protect you may now drag you down. Treasuries are no longer a safe haven.

📌 2. Diversify geographically
Assets in yuan, francs, and commodity currencies can mitigate risk.

📌 3. Hold gold and liquidity
Gold is protection. Liquidity is freedom of action.

📌 4. Watch politics, not just charts
Financial trends are now a function of geopolitics.

📌 5. Be mobile and cynical
In a volatile world, the winner isn’t the one who’s right — but the one who’s fast.

⚖️ Bottom Line:
One monetary empire is weakening. In its place, a network is forming — more fragmented, more volatile, but more just.
The winners won’t be those clinging to the old.
They will be those who can read the map of the new world — and move forward without fear.

IX. Recommendations and Investment Ideas

As the old financial order trembles, it’s more important than ever not just to follow trends — but to shift your mindset.
Below is a concise roadmap across key asset classes.

💱 Currencies: De-dollarization Begins

What to hold:

💴 Japanese Yen — a safe haven that wins when risk outweighs returns.

💶 Euro — with caveats: a position against the dollar, not as a new reserve currency.

🇨🇳 Yuan (CNH) — a growing regional weight, especially in BRICS and African settlements.

What to avoid:

🇺🇸 U.S. Dollar (USD) — overvalued in the long-term. Temporary panic-driven bounces are possible, but the trend is downward.

New anchors:

🪙 Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) — especially in Asia.

⚙️ Baskets of currencies and commodity assets — a likely format for new global reserves.

🥇 Gold: Back to the Future

What to hold:

🟨 Physical gold, gold ETFs, gold futures.

🟫 Mining companies — especially low-cost producers.

What to avoid:

❌ Gold as a “speculative toy.” This is not about quick profits — it’s about preserving capital.

New anchor:

💰 Gold as an infrastructural asset of the new world, possibly in a digital wrapper.

📉 Bonds: “Dangerous Asset” Mode On

What to hold:

🧱 Short-term bonds of stable countries (Switzerland, Singapore, Norway).

⚠️ Inflation-linked (TIPS) and commodity-backed bonds — a hedge against currency devaluation.

What to avoid:

📉 Long-term US Treasuries — especially in “eternally balanced” portfolios.

New anchor:

📊 Corporate bonds backed by real production and exports outside the U.S.

📈 Equities: Investing in the Real, Not Promises

What to hold:

🌐 Tech companies with global revenue (not U.S.-dependent).

🛢️ Commodity producers linked to gold, uranium, copper.

🔋 New energy and infrastructure independent of dollar-denominated debt.

What to avoid:

🧩 Unprofitable tech bubbles — especially in the U.S. NASDAQ market.

🧨 Financial companies heavily exposed to U.S. debt.

New anchor:

⚙️ Companies with real assets, geopolitically diversified — this is where new stability will reside.

💡 Overall Strategy:

Multi-currency portfolio.
Gold as protection.
Liquidity as freedom.

Scenario-based planning — not blind faith in old correlations.
Moving away from the center means moving toward balance.
That’s the new philosophy of capital preservation.